Let’s talk deadline baseball trades.
The Major League Baseball trade deadline recently passed and as usual, there was a flurry of action and non-action. Fans always want their teams to pull the trigger, make the deal for the headline player and go “all in” for this season’s championship. When they don’t, fans complain and show anger about the inaction.
Often, a team considers payroll and mortgaging its future by sending away valued prospects to try to win it all this year. If a cornucopia of prospects leave and the team wins … it is all worth it. But, if the team comes up short – and only one team can win it all – and then those prospects develop into superstars down the road, the general manager will take the heat for years to come with fans flooding social media with … “the player we gave up is great and we sure can use him now; and so-and-so gave him away for that guy who didn’t deliver. Fire that team-destroying GM.” For GMs, it is a can’t-win situation … but they sit in that chair and don’t get our sympathy.
Deal or no deal? There are several philosophies about trading prospects. One is that a prospect has never shown what he can do on the big stage and may never develop into a big-game major leaguer, so it is wise to trade him for a proven big leaguer with a productive track record. Another is that the team believes the guy on the farm will play a vital role in the team’s future, or as a piece in an even bigger trade down the road, so it is wiser to keep him. Then there is the argument of keeping a player with years of team control ahead, rather than giving him up for a “rental,” a player who becomes a free agent at the end of the season as the team chases the dream of winning it all this year.
Every trade carries risk. The big chips this year included 23-year-old super talented slugger-right-fielder Juan Soto and teammate Josh Bell (1B) to San Diego for five prospects (two pitchers) and first baseman Luke Voit. Also dealt at deadline was Brewers all-star closer Josh Hader to San Diego for four players – two prospects.
The big pitching chip was Luis Castillo, who went from the Reds to the Mariners for two shortstops and two pitchers, all top prospects.
The Yankees didn’t get Castillo, but they did get outfielder Andrew Benintendi for three prospects, and they obtained pitcher Frankie Montas from Oakland for four prospects, including three pitchers, though none was above the No. 4 Yankee minor leaguer.
The Twins got pitcher Tyler Mahle from the Reds for three prospects. The Astros received slugger Trey Mancini from Baltimore in a three-team deal (Tampa) for two pitching prospects. In addition, names including Noah Syndegaard, Jake Odorizzi, Eric Hosmer, Joey Gallo, Raisel Iglesias, Whit Merrifield, Jordan Montgomery, David Robertson, Michael Fulmer and Christian Vázquez, among others, changed uniforms.
Some deadline deals capture lightning in a bottle and work out well. Many do not.
In 2008, the Brewers took C.C. Sabathia from the Indians for four prospects. C.C. went 11-2 down the stretch with a 1.65 ERA. Of the prospects, only Michael Brantley made any kind of impact.
In 1964, the St. Louis Cardinals got Lou Brock from the Cubs for Ernie Broglio and others. Brock led the Cards to a 1964 title and 14 more years of stellar play.
In 1988, the Orioles got Brady Anderson and Curt Schilling from Boston for Mike Boddicker. Boddiker was hot for a year, and Anderson (50 homers in 1996) and Schilling produced for more than a decade.
In 1993, the Braves got Fred McGriff for three prospects. Crime Dog was a near Hall of Famer. The prospects were not.
In 1997, the Red Sox got Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek for Heathcliff Slocumb. Lowe and Varitek led the BoSox to rings. No such success for Slocumb.
In, 1997, the Cards grabbed Mark McGwire for prospects. Big Mac hit 70 homers in 1998 and 65 in ’99. The prospects did nothing memorable.
In 2004, the Red Sox obtained Nomar Garciaparra from the Cubs for a pair of marginal big leaguers. Nomar led Boston to the Promised Land.
In 1987, a Doyle Alexander to Detroit for John Smoltz in Atlanta trade was win-win for a while.
In 2000, The Yanks got David Justice from the Indians for three low-namers. The Yankees won the crown in 2000, getting 20 home runs and 60 RBIs in just 78 games from Justice.
Those were successful deals in which the prospects seldom delivered. Do you make the deal and peddle away the future for the here and now?
Deal or no deal? Trade the prospects for a shot at the title or hold them and see what they can do? What trades would you have made as a GM? Let me know at mike.blake@mountvernonnews.com.
