The price of eggs has been in the news lately, and with good reason. Over the past year, prices have surged 70%, according to CNBC, giving consumers the same sticker shock they get from at least a dozen other commodities, ranging from lumber to fuel to dairy products.
The change, and its impact on consumer behavior, has been noticed by economists like Jay Corrigan, a professor at Knox County's own Kenyon College.
The Washington Post cited Corrigan's research on Facebook as “one of the ten best works on the political economy of 2018.” He has also received Kenyon's Trustee Teaching Excellence Award, and the Princeton Review named him one of America's best college professors.
Corrigan specializes in economics related to consumer behavior, agriculture, public health and game theory. He says the inflation we’re seeing is often rooted in the simple supply and demand equation.
For instance, the rise in egg prices is mainly due to an avian flu epidemic that shrunk the flock of egg-laying hens. The Centers for Disease Control reported in November 2022 that nearly 50 million birds in the U.S. have died either from the virus or were killed to prevent its spread.
Corrigan said many economic processes, such as inflation, move in cycles.
"I imagine the egg producers are doing everything they can to increase the size of the laying flock, trying to offset the effects of the avian flu," he said. "And so, with time, those flocks will be as large as they were in the past, and the price of eggs will come back down. But in the meantime, I can tell you eggs are more expensive than we're used to, even if they're not currently $5 (per dozen)."
Many economists blame the country’s recent inflationary woes on various triggers, from supply chain disruptions to international competition for commodities to the war in Ukraine.
Corrigan cited the example of lumber, which is produced in the U.S. and imported from Canada.
"We have, over the past, say, six years, increased the tariffs we charge on Canadian lumber imports, which in part explains why lumber prices have been high,” he said. Costly lumber translates into higher prices for new homes.
Since the pandemic quarantine, buyers have focused on seeking more space (remodeling or buying bigger) or looking to rent bigger apartments. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, which has increased the cost of mortgages. Bankrate.com says 30-year fixed mortgage rates have more than doubled since November 2020 (3.03%) compared to March 2023 (6.84%).
But even an economist would have a hard time predicting the housing market’s inflationary ride.
“Are we in the middle of a bubble that's about to burst? I don't know the answer to that," Corrigan said. "And if I did, I'd be terribly, terribly rich. But might we expect housing prices to moderate, to start to come down? Yes, I think that's reasonable to believe as interest rates continue to rise.”
In terms of what consumers can do while waiting for their egg and home prices to drop, Corrigan said technology has made it a shopper’s market when it comes to comparison shopping.
“That's easier than ever to do with online tools available to us,” he said.
However, the catch is that having more data may only do you a little good.
“The fact is, if everything is getting more expensive around you, it's going to be pretty hard to avoid that,” he said. “It's not as if it's just one store or three prices. It's that all stores have been raising their prices because of an increase in the cost of goods, which makes it hard to avoid. We can just hope that the inflation rate comes back down to something more like what we're used to – about 2% per year.”
One possible way to mitigate inflation is participating in merchants’ rewards or loyalty programs. This touches on another of Corrigan’s research interests: game theory. Stores using a loyalty program create, in essence, a game experience by letting consumers earn points for repeat purchases.
“So, I'm not always thinking about which restaurant to go to," he said. "I'm just always going to go to this one restaurant because I want to get punches on my card. So, to that extent, I think that [merchants] are understandably trying to carve out their own little monopoly market so that they can make a little bit more money in what would otherwise be a very competitive landscape.”
Kenyon named a top Fulbright producer
The recent announcement that Kenyon College ranks as a top producer of Fulbright Scholars cements a long history of academic milestones for the college.
In 1939, the college launched The Kenyon Review, a literary magazine that has since won the prestigious O. Henry Prize for short stories and numerous other literary awards.
Back in 2012, The Princeton Review named nine Kenyon faculty among the 300 best professors in the nation: Fred Baumann, Jay Corrigan, Pamela Jensen, David Leibowitz, Kim McMullen, Natalia Olshanskaya, Joel Richeimer, Timothy Baker Shutt and David N. Suggs. According to a social media post, the college recognized all for “being academically brilliant” pioneers in their fields.
Founded in 1824 by Philander Chase, an Episcopal bishop, the college today boasts faculty who have received awards in literature, religious history, film studies, international affairs, anthropology and creative writing, to name a few.
This year’s Fulbright announcement recognizes faculty and student achievement and places Kenyon among only five U.S. colleges to produce that number of Fulbright winners. In addition, the college ranks No. 1 as an undergraduate institution for faculty scholars.
Fulbright Scholars are given by the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs.
“Eleven Kenyon students and recent graduates, as well as four faculty, were selected for Fulbright awards for the academic year 2022-2023,” the college says on its website. “Kenyon is one of only 17 institutions across the country – including only five baccalaureate colleges – to be recognized as a top producer for students and scholars. In addition, Kenyon was first among all undergraduate institutions in producing scholars.”
Although its academic pedigree may entice some students, Corrigan said he believes location plays a role.
“It's near enough to the East Coast that it doesn't feel far away for people living in the east,” he said. “And of course, it is solidly in the Midwest. So, we draw folks from that part of the country as well. And I think that for the students who choose to be here, they like the idea of a rural campus, which is going to be quiet and safe, where they can just focus on their studies and campus life for four years.”
The Mount Vernon News will provide more coverage of notable Kenyon alumni and faculty in future editions.
